Book 4, Question 100
Why Can a Weather Forecast Miss?
Weather is a giant puzzle with too many moving pieces! A forecast is the best science guess from computer models, satellites, and radars. It's not a promise carved in stone.
From the book
Page from A Million Whys Book 4
More fun facts
- Weather forecasters use computer programs called weather models.
- Satellites in space collect much of the information the models need.
- Nobody can collect data from the future, so models must use estimates to predict what comes next.
- The air is changing all the time, so forecasts get less reliable the further ahead they look.
- A five-day forecast is right about 90 percent of the time.
- A seven-day forecast is right about 80 percent of the time.
- Scientists study the mistakes in old forecasts to make weather models better.
Questions kids ask
How far ahead can forecasters predict the weather?
They do well up to about 7 days. Beyond that, forecasts are much less reliable.